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Villain is 10/8 and running 6/6 in EP over 2500. Rate my river (and the rest of my reasoning). Good bluff? Spew? Only thing I'm sure about is FPS.
Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com
UTG+2: $49.25
MP1: $50.00
MP2: $9.25
CO: $68.15
BTN: $16.80
Hero (SB): $50.00
BB: $11.35
UTG: $14.70
UTG+1: $66.00
Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Q
Q
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $2, 4 folds, Hero calls $1.75, 1 fold
Keep his range as wide as possible ldo.
Flop: ($4.50) 9
7 J
(2 players)Hero checks, UTG+2 bets $3, Hero calls $3
imo his range is PPs so this is WA/WB. I'm only worried about A's and K's peeling off for his whiffed AK at which point I plan to c/f so I don't really see a point in c/r since I'm crushed if he calls or raises.
Turn: ($10.50) 5
(2 players)Hero checks, UTG+2 bets $7, Hero calls $7
changes nothing. There aren't any draws in his range except for exactly
A
K and gutshots.River: ($24.50) 8
(2 players)Hero checks, UTG+2 bets $13, Hero raises to $38 all in
Was going to give this up if he trippled it but then noticed small bet and 4 to a straight. My shove still gives him 3:1. I don't think I ever win if I c/c again. So I turn my hand into a bluff and rep the T which he really can't ever have unless he has TT. Do I fold out KK+ and sets often enough considering the mountain of dead money in the pot?
whoops, i think you were bluffing with the best hand, although you would need to provide more post fl data on the villian. the only hand thats calling you there is one which has you beat, and even a nit like that is looking you up with aa-kk with the odds you r offering him. leaving out the sets, that leaves ak-aq.
ReplyDeletedid he give you the odds to call with the t on the turn? not really. did he think you were the type of player to make that call on the turn with just the draw? draw and a pair cr on the flop? even at 50nl he would have figured it out. any non set pair below aa-kk and he almost always snap checking the river
yeah i totally agree with you. i've thought about this hand for a lot of the day and i think it is definite spew.
ReplyDeletepretty sure he's going to spite call me with KK+ and sets way too often given the pot odds i give myself on the shove.
i was basically thinking
a) lots of dead money - how can i get it?
b) he can't have a T unless he has TT
c) nobody with normal stats ever c/c c/c CRAI as a bluff at 50NL so I assume he has to think this is for value even though he still beats a lot of my value range
stil spewy after thinking about it.
First, i think flatting qq vs this guy is not only fine, but preferable. Yes, playing oop sucks, but we cant 3 bet for value vs these players, and we clearly never want to be 3bet/folding qq for 100bb stacks.
ReplyDeleteyoure correct to assume even a 10/8 nit is going to end up looking you up when they open in EP and bet 3 streets. That line just rarely just contains so few hands that can or will fold to a river c/r from you unless effective stacks are a lot deeper.
A fun lil bit of pokerstove though will show that a preflop range of 77-AA, AQo+, ATs+ is 6.5% of hands.
So while he may not (likley doesnt) have that above exact range from EP, it does mean that with his 6/6 stats from EP, either hes opening most pairs from EP, or some sc's, or a few of the big suited aces or some blend of the above in such that hes not as tight as just JJ+ and Ak.
also, Tbh, i really dont think he has KK or AA here much, if at all. and id imagine you probably feel the same way bc hes either checking the turn or checking the river with those hands. Its near impossible to see a 10/8 be able to go for 3 streets of value on that board when he gets c/called and c/called and the board looks that intimidating on the river.
I almost think we can narrow his range to literally TT, AsTs, AsJs, AsKs, 99, 77, JJ bc i doubt a player with those stats over 2500 hands is really barrelling the turn much as a complete bluff (partially bc they dont double barrell, and partially bc his preflop range is so strong its hard for him to be completely bluffing on the turn as most of his hands will have some form of showdown value)
One big problem we run into in these spots though is we can easily level ourselves. Remember, most players at 50nl dont just flat with qq. Our hand's starting strength is extremely underrepped. In theory, if he can hand read at all, this board by the time we get to the river should have absolutely smashed our range for calling preflop, and continuing to the river. Yet hes telling us he doesnt care. This could point us in the direction of just check/folding the river.
Preflop and flop I agree with. On the turn, you say that the 5s changes nothing. True, it won't have improved any of villain's hands (besides giving AsKs a draw as you said), but the fact that he bet again does mean that his range is stronger now because he's checking at least some of his weaker hands here. That being said, I still like a call.
ReplyDeleteAs for the river, I agree that if we ch/c here again we lose. On the other hand, there are three main problems I have w/ your ch/r bluff:
1 - If we actually had the ten, a lot of the time we would lead out because we expect villain to ch/ behind with overpairs a lot and he may know this, and because there is only a little over a pot-sized bet left in the effective stacks anyway.
2 - While villain can only have the straight w/ TT, a lot of the time he'll just check down the river w/ overpairs hoping to get to showdown cheap.
3 - Because of the odds that we are offering when we shove, I think it's unlikely that we fold out KK+ often enough for this to work.
A better plan might be to shove the river ourselves repping the ten. It puts maximum pressure on our opponent, makes sense given what we are trying to rep, and balances the times we do this w/ the ten. He doesn't have the T often himself, he'll fold out hands we beat anyway, and we may be able to get KK+ to fold as well.