I'm obviously not ready for 200nl yet psychologically. I played pretty decent today and I think I can compete there, but I finished the session down "only" 1.5 BI after starting up 1.5 BI and I feel kind of sick about it. Thankfully that's all I was down after running 2nd flush into nut flush 3 hands in a row on the same table against the same 30/15.
Kept running into sets after that even though I pot controlled it pretty well and got away with not paying them much but then got a little frustrated about flush under flush and overpair vs set situations happening constantly and spewed my JJ overpair vs a BB (12/11 with 25% c/r) c/r on a low board. Decided it was time to quit after that when I was telling myself just fold to the c/r just fold, it doesn't matter just fold, but no i 4bet/call the flop, sigh.
Will try again next month.
Showing posts with label Moving Up. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Moving Up. Show all posts
Saturday, 31 October 2009
Wednesday, 21 October 2009
100nl 6m: Finally some run good!
I've been running really substandard in my 100nl 6max shots so far, plus I think I've been a little spewy in the 3bet/4bet/5bet wars and I'm trying to cut that out and it seemed to help a lot today lol. Not so surprisingly a little patience goes a long way against people that don't like to fold much and like to play back a little more.
I mean, "they're not playing back at you" yeah. But in terms of what they are willing to play back at you with becomes wider since they game is probably 3x more aggressive than 50nl 6max imo. It's not really playing back at you when they have a draw and choose to semi-bluff rather than c/c. That's just standard better play.
Some highlights from today:
Terrible looking "shortstack" table I know, but these aren't shortstacks, they're just 40/10's that ran out of money. My auto-post blind is turned off. Setmine FTW.
Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 333978
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
BTN: $20.50
SB: $171.40
BB: $153.65
Hero (UTG): $101.60
MP: $22.75
CO: $20.00
Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with 6
6
Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, CO calls $3, BTN raises to $8.50, SB calls $8, 1 fold, Hero calls $5.50, CO raises to $20 all in, BTN raises to $20.50 all in, SB calls $12, Hero calls $12
Flop: ($82.50) 5
6
3
(4 players - 2 are all in)
SB bets $8, Hero raises to $81.10 all in, SB calls $73.10
Turn: ($244.70) 3
(4 players - 3 are all in)
River: ($244.70) 7
(4 players - 3 are all in)
Final Pot: $244.70
BTN shows K
A
(a pair of Threes)
SB shows 8
8
(two pair, Eights and Threes)
Hero shows 6
6
(a full house, Sixes full of Threes)
CO shows J
T
(a pair of Threes)
Hero wins $162.20
Hero wins $1.50
Hero wins $78.00
(Rake: $3.00)
This hand was pretty standard but gives you and idea of "not playing back" hand ranges that I tend to see a lot with a slightly higher than average 3bet/4bet %. He's playing completely correctly in stacking off according to my range imo lol except it should be pre.
Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 333982
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
SB: $242.50
BB: $104.00
UTG: $98.50
MP: $26.95
Hero (CO): $117.35
BTN: $104.85
Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with Q
Q
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, SB raises to $10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $30, SB calls $20
Flop: ($61.00) 6
7
Q
(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $35.50, SB calls $35.50
Turn: ($132.00) 7
(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $51.85 all in, SB calls $51.85
River: ($235.70) 3
(2 players - 1 is all in)
Final Pot: $235.70
SB shows J
J
(two pair, Jacks and Sevens)
Hero shows Q
Q
(a full house, Queens full of Sevens)
Hero wins $232.70
(Rake: $3.00)
I mean, "they're not playing back at you" yeah. But in terms of what they are willing to play back at you with becomes wider since they game is probably 3x more aggressive than 50nl 6max imo. It's not really playing back at you when they have a draw and choose to semi-bluff rather than c/c. That's just standard better play.
Some highlights from today:
Terrible looking "shortstack" table I know, but these aren't shortstacks, they're just 40/10's that ran out of money. My auto-post blind is turned off. Setmine FTW.
Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 333978
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
BTN: $20.50
SB: $171.40
BB: $153.65
Hero (UTG): $101.60
MP: $22.75
CO: $20.00
Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with 6
6
Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, CO calls $3, BTN raises to $8.50, SB calls $8, 1 fold, Hero calls $5.50, CO raises to $20 all in, BTN raises to $20.50 all in, SB calls $12, Hero calls $12
Flop: ($82.50) 5
6
3
(4 players - 2 are all in)SB bets $8, Hero raises to $81.10 all in, SB calls $73.10
Turn: ($244.70) 3
(4 players - 3 are all in)River: ($244.70) 7
(4 players - 3 are all in)Final Pot: $244.70
BTN shows K
A
(a pair of Threes)SB shows 8
8
(two pair, Eights and Threes)Hero shows 6
6
(a full house, Sixes full of Threes)CO shows J
T
(a pair of Threes)Hero wins $162.20
Hero wins $1.50
Hero wins $78.00
(Rake: $3.00)
This hand was pretty standard but gives you and idea of "not playing back" hand ranges that I tend to see a lot with a slightly higher than average 3bet/4bet %. He's playing completely correctly in stacking off according to my range imo lol except it should be pre.
Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 333982
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
SB: $242.50
BB: $104.00
UTG: $98.50
MP: $26.95
Hero (CO): $117.35
BTN: $104.85
Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with Q
Q
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, SB raises to $10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $30, SB calls $20
Flop: ($61.00) 6
7
Q
(2 players)SB checks, Hero bets $35.50, SB calls $35.50
Turn: ($132.00) 7
(2 players)SB checks, Hero bets $51.85 all in, SB calls $51.85
River: ($235.70) 3
(2 players - 1 is all in)Final Pot: $235.70
SB shows J
J
(two pair, Jacks and Sevens)Hero shows Q
Q
(a full house, Queens full of Sevens)Hero wins $232.70
(Rake: $3.00)
Thursday, 15 October 2009
New Full Ring Coaching Site
There seems to be a lot of demand and short supply of Full Ring NLHE video content and Best Free Poker Coaching is going to be a great resource for this. I joined the other 7 coaches there and we will be making full ring videos and offering coaching. These guys are just amazing and I've learned a ton from them so make sure you check it out. There's some great deals too like gift cards and licenses to Poker Tracker 3 or Holdem Manager with the purchase of package deals.
I've been looking to get into coaching for a while now and this is the perfect opportunity for me and I think making videos will be a lot of fun and help me improve my own game as well.
Other than that I've been playing a good mix of full ring, 6max as well as getting into some PLO 6max which I find extremely fun to play and so much more complex in a lot of ways. It's nice to keep things fresh with a number of different games that I can beat and I'm starting to see equity and play making spots in some games that are more common in others.
Put in a nice 6 tabling session of PLO25 today and ran pretty well: +7 buyins over 700 hands. I decided to purchase the HEM Omaha addon yesterday and I'm using my NLHE HUD but I'm not really sure that it's all that useful beyond identifying fish via VPIP as per usual. Air is so minimal from 99% of the players that I've encountered so far and I guess that's expected in a game that's about making the nuts with a redraw to the nuts.
I started off with some really fishy stats of 38/17 and was cold calling 33% - I don't know for sure if this is fishy or not and have no idea what "standard" is. But I'm starting to notice a lot more good spots to isolate and I'm starting to understand the preflop equity a bit more so those numbers are slowly merging - I'm now running 35/23 but still have no idea if this is proper strat or not. I'm going to see how much of this game I can figure out on my own, it's a good complicated math problem.
The rest of the month has been a bit of a roller coaster... er... make that 2 way escalator, of winning money at my regular game, taking shots, running sub-standard during shots, repeat - but I'm still happy with the results as I'm learning quite a bit during my shot taking sessions.
So yeah, make sure you check out Best Free Poker Coaching and all the coaches there!
I've been looking to get into coaching for a while now and this is the perfect opportunity for me and I think making videos will be a lot of fun and help me improve my own game as well.
Other than that I've been playing a good mix of full ring, 6max as well as getting into some PLO 6max which I find extremely fun to play and so much more complex in a lot of ways. It's nice to keep things fresh with a number of different games that I can beat and I'm starting to see equity and play making spots in some games that are more common in others.
Put in a nice 6 tabling session of PLO25 today and ran pretty well: +7 buyins over 700 hands. I decided to purchase the HEM Omaha addon yesterday and I'm using my NLHE HUD but I'm not really sure that it's all that useful beyond identifying fish via VPIP as per usual. Air is so minimal from 99% of the players that I've encountered so far and I guess that's expected in a game that's about making the nuts with a redraw to the nuts.
I started off with some really fishy stats of 38/17 and was cold calling 33% - I don't know for sure if this is fishy or not and have no idea what "standard" is. But I'm starting to notice a lot more good spots to isolate and I'm starting to understand the preflop equity a bit more so those numbers are slowly merging - I'm now running 35/23 but still have no idea if this is proper strat or not. I'm going to see how much of this game I can figure out on my own, it's a good complicated math problem.
The rest of the month has been a bit of a roller coaster... er... make that 2 way escalator, of winning money at my regular game, taking shots, running sub-standard during shots, repeat - but I'm still happy with the results as I'm learning quite a bit during my shot taking sessions.
So yeah, make sure you check out Best Free Poker Coaching and all the coaches there!
Wednesday, 13 May 2009
Update and biggest pot ever!
Thought I'd post an update seeing as how I don't get around to posting that much anymore. I've been watching a lot of videos lately on DC. Most notably the Coaching Tree videos with BalugaWhale and his team. Incredibly awesome stuff!
I try to watch one every day or so and have noticed myself progressively playing a lot more spots comfortably. It kind of feels like everything is starting to click. When I previously tried to loosen up my game, I think I went about it the wrong way. I was basically just trying to play more hands. That's going to result in disaster (or at least no improvement in winrate).
But now, I'm finding I'm playing all sorts of hands without even realizing that I'm running super loose until I check my HEM stats after a session. I think that tells me that I'm doing it right now.
It's not a matter of playing more hands for the sake of playing more hands. It's a matter of seeing more and more profitable spots and pushing my skill edge in those spots. I totally understand the framework behind what's going on when I see high stakes players on edited poker TV shows or at the online nosebleeds pushing garbage around in what looks like donk-on-donk violence sessions.
I'm also starting to make the move up to 100NL permanent. I've put in about 30-40% of my volume there this month with fantastic results along with a lot of hours at 50NL grinding out buyins, experimenting and really focussing on improving my game. I like to use a 3 stake system where I can play low if I am not on my A game but want a poker fix, play my A game and grind in my "home" level, and take shots at the next.
So far this has been 25NL/50NL/100NL for the past few months for me. I've started to put in a little bit of time at 200NL although hardly anything yet as I'm trying to make 100NL home and 50NL the low end. I have not opened a single 25NL table this month.
Also really liking the HEM Scanner. I kind of sucked at table selection prior to this but apparently I have a good scoring system since the tables with the highest scores usually have a monster waiting list. I'm not sure if I'm going to just buy the client side for a one time payment or pick the subscription for server side. Server side is so much faster and a lot of fish are long gone by the time it's finished scanning in client side.
Anyways, BIGGEST HAND EVER in my life happened this week:
UTG+1 is 8/6. MP2 is a squeeze-happy supernova elite.
I had a mini-heart attack on the turn.
Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 119198
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
Hero (MP1): $203.00
MP2: $200.00
CO: $216.20
BTN: $336.00
SB: $214.50
BB: $41.80
UTG: $59.15
UTG+1: $200.00
UTG+2: $200.00
Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is MP1 with K
K
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $6, 1 fold, Hero calls $6, MP2 raises to $24, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls $18, Hero raises to $72, 1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $200 all in, Hero calls $128
Flop: ($427.00) K
4
4
(2 players - 1 is all in)
Turn: ($427.00) A
(2 players - 1 is all in)
River: ($427.00) 5
(2 players - 1 is all in)
Final Pot: $427.00
Hero shows K
K
(a full house, Kings full of Fours)
UTG+1 shows Q
Q
(two pair, Queens and Fours)
Hero wins $424.00
(Rake: $3.00)
I try to watch one every day or so and have noticed myself progressively playing a lot more spots comfortably. It kind of feels like everything is starting to click. When I previously tried to loosen up my game, I think I went about it the wrong way. I was basically just trying to play more hands. That's going to result in disaster (or at least no improvement in winrate).
But now, I'm finding I'm playing all sorts of hands without even realizing that I'm running super loose until I check my HEM stats after a session. I think that tells me that I'm doing it right now.
It's not a matter of playing more hands for the sake of playing more hands. It's a matter of seeing more and more profitable spots and pushing my skill edge in those spots. I totally understand the framework behind what's going on when I see high stakes players on edited poker TV shows or at the online nosebleeds pushing garbage around in what looks like donk-on-donk violence sessions.
I'm also starting to make the move up to 100NL permanent. I've put in about 30-40% of my volume there this month with fantastic results along with a lot of hours at 50NL grinding out buyins, experimenting and really focussing on improving my game. I like to use a 3 stake system where I can play low if I am not on my A game but want a poker fix, play my A game and grind in my "home" level, and take shots at the next.
So far this has been 25NL/50NL/100NL for the past few months for me. I've started to put in a little bit of time at 200NL although hardly anything yet as I'm trying to make 100NL home and 50NL the low end. I have not opened a single 25NL table this month.
Also really liking the HEM Scanner. I kind of sucked at table selection prior to this but apparently I have a good scoring system since the tables with the highest scores usually have a monster waiting list. I'm not sure if I'm going to just buy the client side for a one time payment or pick the subscription for server side. Server side is so much faster and a lot of fish are long gone by the time it's finished scanning in client side.
Anyways, BIGGEST HAND EVER in my life happened this week:
UTG+1 is 8/6. MP2 is a squeeze-happy supernova elite.
I had a mini-heart attack on the turn.
Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 119198
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
Hero (MP1): $203.00
MP2: $200.00
CO: $216.20
BTN: $336.00
SB: $214.50
BB: $41.80
UTG: $59.15
UTG+1: $200.00
UTG+2: $200.00
Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is MP1 with K
K
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $6, 1 fold, Hero calls $6, MP2 raises to $24, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls $18, Hero raises to $72, 1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $200 all in, Hero calls $128
Flop: ($427.00) K
4
4
(2 players - 1 is all in)Turn: ($427.00) A
(2 players - 1 is all in)River: ($427.00) 5
(2 players - 1 is all in)Final Pot: $427.00
Hero shows K
K
(a full house, Kings full of Fours)UTG+1 shows Q
Q
(two pair, Queens and Fours)Hero wins $424.00
(Rake: $3.00)
Saturday, 29 November 2008
Article: Moving Up

I’m not an expert poker player. But I have had a lot of experience with moving up – and down – in stakes. I started out like most clueless poker hopefuls and played extremely high for the size of my bankroll. After winning a few freerolls and floating around in the micro SnGs, I moved over to cash games. And there I sat with my $20 at a couple of 10NL full ring tables. After nearly busting my roll more than a few times I decided that there must be a more sensible way of managing my poker money. This article is from the perspective of a part-time full ring NL player that has managed to never make a single deposit out of pocket in the first 2 years of his poker “career.”
Before we get started, keep in mind that Bankroll Management is for winning players. If you are not a winning player, I encourage you to stop reading now, bookmark this article for future reference and read up on some good strategy to get you started in the right direction. Until then, following the advice in this article will not help you, and the stakes you choose to play at will only determine how fast you lose money.
The ideas contained in this article are not sourced as I could not possibly compile a list. Many of these ideas have become common knowledge in the 2p2 community and have been repeated in countless threads. Several people that come to mind from which I have drawn ideas regarding this topic are: Fimbulwinter, Phzon, WCG|rider, Alan Schoonmaker and of course Mason Malmuth.
Winrate
We have an engrained notion in our poker psyche to not be results oriented – at least this is what we strive for. However I assume that most people still have that results oriented mind hiding somewhere no matter how much they try to suppress it.
It is somewhat odd then that we think of winrates with such importance. If we follow the logical conclusion of calculating our winrate, it ultimately ends with the answer to how much money did you make if we apply the use of winrates with our results oriented minds. It’s good to set goals, but setting goals as far as winrates are concerned is not a good idea because you do not have complete control over your results. If you don’t meet those goals you’ll be disappointed in yourself when you shouldn’t necessarily be.
However there are much more useful ways of using winrates, especially to help us when moving up in stakes:
1. Winrates help us compare our performance at different levels in a more relative sense. You will, or should, make more money at 100NL than at 25NL if you are a winning player at both levels. But that doesn’t really tell us anything, because it’s based on dollars won. Winrates throw out the dollar figure and replace it with a Poker Tracker BB per 100 (ptBB/100) figure. Now we can compare apples to apples when comparing our performance at different stakes.
2. Winrates help us think in terms of big blinds rather than dollars, as stated above. It would be wonderful if poker clients would allow us to display big blinds in our stack and the pot rather than dollars. It would make moving up much easier by letting us play our regular game, not playing scared because your stack is now double the size in dollar amount, and not have to adjust to new bet sizes. I have yet to find a client that does this, but thinking in those terms instead of dollars won is a huge step towards moving up in stakes.
Sample Size
It is important to ensure that you are in fact a winner at a certain level before moving up. Most people underestimate the required sample size that is needed to even start analyzing their game. In my experience, you can really only start to analyze your game after 20k hands, and after 50k hands your analysis can start to become quite solid. But those 2k and 5k hand samples are not going to do it. Keep in mind that most multi-tablers out there can put in that many hands in a single sitting. And at the same time, 50k+ hand breakeven, heater and downswing samples are very possible.
That said, once you are confident in your sample size and your accomplishments over that sample size, you are on your way to moving up. You can now be confident that if things don’t go well at the next level, you can always come back down, re-tool your game, make some money, and rebuild your confidence for another shot. You essentially have the data to back up the fact that says you should never go busto if you are able to move back down when necessary.
Playing Your Game
After successfully beating one level and taking a shot at the next, do not change anything. Play the same game. Play it cautiously and focused, but not scared. A lot of us have made the mistake of playing differently based on our inexperienced perceptions of the new level. The only major difference between the old level and the new level is that there are a few less fish and a few more regs so don’t mess with what’s working.
You’ll also need to keep buying in for the same number of big blinds. You can’t play your game if you try to play it safe and buyin short to protect your bankroll. If you normally buyin for 100BB but want to take a shot with 60BB, your hand values are going to change drastically and your style could become a losing one solely based on the new math behind your stack size.
Be observant and take notice of anything different in the general table dynamics that you haven’t seen before. Is this level tighter, looser, more aggressive, more passive, 3bets more, squeezes more, etc?
You might look at your stats after a significant sample size and realize that there is a big difference in your stats between the old and new levels. If you are sure that you aren’t playing scared and haven’t changed anything, it may just be that you are not being allowed the same opportunities that you were previously although you are still playing the same game. For example, your VPIP/PFR could drop from 15/12 at 25NL to 13/10 at 50NL without changing a single thing in your game. If the new level has better players that are not limping as much, and there’s more 3betting going on, those are just two of many possible reasons that you haven’t had as many opportunities to enter the pot where you did before. There are potential variables like this for all sorts of stats.
Figure out what those differences in table dynamics are and come up with a strategy to try to exploit them. There are going to be adjustments that you’ll need to make to improve as a player and to achieve success at the new level. It’s part of growing as a player. But don’t change anything drastically. Ease in with one adjustment at a time, if it doesn’t work, forget about it and go back to your default style until you find something that works better than your default.
Variance
Variance is going to seem huge when you take a shot – mostly because you will feel like you are playing with 2 buyins or deepstacked. This is another reason why it’s important to think in big blinds rather than dollars. Taking a shot and running good feels awesome. But all too often taking a shot ends up in running bad and/or playing bad and this will be devastating.
As I stated in the intro, Bankroll Management is for winning players. The problem with taking a shot is that you do not yet know if you are a winning player at the new level, so you need to follow the rule that losing players should follow. You need to decide how much you can afford to lose and consider that money to be dead and gone. An added bonus to thinking like this is that the money shouldn’t matter as much to you and you will be better able to play your game optimally.
It is always important to review your hands, but especially so when you are attempting to move up. If you have hit a bad run, review every hand where you put money in the pot and see if you actually played well and just got a bit of negative variance, played poorly, played scared, or did not maximize value in spots you could have – you’ll need to review every hand for this last one, not just your largest winners and losers.
Be Flexible
If your shot at moving up is successful you should try to play at the new level as much as possible. But don’t force it. If the games are not good at certain times of the day for the new level, the old level probably has more good games running. Don’t ever hesitate to sit in a good game. Table selection is key to moving up as well as to building confidence.
Some people are able to table select across multiple levels and it works very well for them. A super fishy 25NL game is way more profitable than a table of 50NL regs any day so if you want to fire up more tables but there’s no good 50NL tables left to waitlist, play that 25NL table. I can’t personally play multiple levels because it messes with my bet sizing – I need to continue to work on thinking in big blinds – but you should certainly give it a try.
Monetary Bankroll
You will find people that say there is a standard bankroll size that you should have, usually in the 20 to 30 buyin range. Everything in poker “depends” on many variables, and bankroll is no exception.
There is a mathematical formula for calculating a bankroll plan for your individual needs that includes the most important variables (and also shows the need for significant sample sizes, as stated previously):
Bankroll = Comfort x Standard Deviation^2 / Winrate
Comfort is the only variable that you get to decide on in this equation, and it’s your own personal choice. It has been suggested that a comfort level of 2 allows an aggressive, high risk bankroll while a comfort level of 4 is more of a conservative, low risk bankroll. This is essentially a risk of ruin formula.
For example, if your comfort level is 2 with a standard deviation of 80 big blinds / 100 hands and your winrate is 8 big blinds / 100 hands your bankroll would need to be: BR = 2 x 80^2 / 8 = 1600 big blinds, or 16 buyins at 100 big blinds per buyin. With the same standard deviation and winrate, someone with a conservative comfort level of 4 would require a bankroll of 32 buyins.
As you move up in stakes, you are going to find two definite trends. Your opponents will be progressively more aggressive and make fewer mistakes. More aggressive games will result in higher variance and a higher standard deviation, while tougher opponents making less mistakes will result in a lower winrate. Therefore the risk of ruin formula will show that you will require more buyins at higher stakes than you would at lower stakes.
Of course this does not take into account the shear dollar amount that is required to mass multitable. You may have a monetary requirement of 20 buyins for your level, but you are going to need more than that if you are playing 18 tables or more for the simple reason that you have to have money left over to reload your stacks.
That said, you do not need to increase the size of your bankroll requirements just because you are multitabling in regards to variance – 1000 hands played over 1 hour will yield the same variance as 1000 hands played over 10 hours – but you may need to increase the size of your bankroll requirements in regards to a drop in your winrate if playing multiple tables causes you to lose focus somewhat.
Psychological Bankroll
There is another level of bankroll management that most people overlook. That is their psychological bankroll. Many bankrolls have been destroyed by playing beyond psychological bankroll limits. You may have the monetary bankroll to play in a game that you can beat. But you have to figure out and get beyond what that money means to you.
When I started at 25NL I played extremely scared because $25 was more than my hourly wage at my day job and the thought of losing $25 petrified me. There are a whole gamut of ways to perceive the value of money: what it can buy, your salary, your rent, your groceries, etc. But if we continue to perceive our bankrolls in this way, it will hinder our progress.
"At the poker table chips are money, but money is nothing. Think of chips only as a tool to extract other chips from other players" – SplitSuit
Playing above psychological bankroll limits can be devastating. If you hear someone talking about “moving up to where they respect my raises” or getting rostucko by moving up to win back losses faster, these are people that are playing above their psychological limits. They are most likely playing tilted and the money matters a lot to them. Bankrolls can disappear within minutes if they hit a bad run or let their tilt overwhelm them.
The comfort level in the bankroll requirements formula is a measure that can be used to quantify your psychological bankroll. We can rearrange the formula to figure out exactly what your minimum comfort level is.
Comfort = Bankroll / Standard Deviation^2 x Winrate
To use the rearranged formula, think about your current regular game. Use the standard deviation and winrate numbers that you have data for, but instead of your current bankroll, use the minimum bankroll size that you would be comfortable playing your regular game with. This calculation will tell you what your baseline comfort level is, which can be compared to your monetary bankroll requirements. It is a good idea to make sure that both psychological and monetary bankroll requirements are met to be able to play your game optimally.
The best way that I’ve found to get over the value of money when taking a shot at moving up is to actually play one level higher than the level I’m attempting to move up to, and then move back down to the level I’m taking shots at. You do not want to do this if a lost buyin at the higher level will adversely affect your bankroll. When you come back down, the money will not seem to be as much when you’ve been watching pots that are twice as big.
Another psychological factor that influences moving up is downswings while taking shots. Most people will refuse to set a stop loss, saying it’s a bad idea. They say that if the games are good and you are making correct decisions, there is no reason to leave. If that applies to you, then good for you for not letting tilt affect you. But for most of us, we can not honestly say this is true. We may say we’ve lost 3 buyins as a favorite and that we made the correct choices so we should keep playing, but we need to take this one step further and ask ourselves if we will be able to continue to make correct choices after losing x number of buyins and set stop losses if necessary, especially when taking shots.
There is also no reason to stay at your regular game if you are on a downswing. If you are insistent on playing through it, it would make more sense to move down a level and minimize losses, because minimizing losses is exactly the same as maximizing profits. This concept applies to both individual hands and your bankroll management as a whole.
Setting Goals
It’s a good idea to figure out exactly what your purpose for playing poker is. If it’s just for enjoyment, you can treat your bankroll as a budget. There aren’t too many hobbies out there where you can have a good time and actually make money, too.
If you want to play poker on a more serious level it is a good idea to progress goals. These goals may be anything from learning about specific strategies that you are seeing as you move up to learning about table selection.
A lot of people also like to set monetary goals if they plan to withdraw funds from their bankroll to purchase something they would otherwise not buy. Maybe a new car or a surround sound system. These can be good goals for helping you work towards something, too.
It is also extremely important to set an end goal. What is the specific final goal you are working towards? It might be to be a 200NL pro, or a 50NL semi-pro to supplement your income or anything in between or beyond. Once you’ve reached these goals, always set new ones to work towards. This will help your continued growth as a player.
Planning Your Move
I have created a Bankroll Management Excel sheet for you to download so that you can manage your bankroll and take shots optimally with a concise plan.
The first sheet “BR Requirements” allows you to quickly see possible bankroll requirements by adjusting the variables. It also lets you do a reverse comfort level lookup to see exactly what comfort level you are enjoying right now with your current bankroll and stakes, or to figure out what your baseline comfort level is as discussed earlier. If that comfort level is getting up there, why not take a shot?
The second sheet “BR Plan” allows you to enter your variables for multiple levels. You can start to see what your minimum bankroll requirements are for each level once your sample size is large enough to ensure your variables are accurate. You can then start to estimate standard deviations and winrates based on your past moves up in stakes and what kind of bankroll you will require in the future. It will also tell you that once you reach a bankroll threshold, you should start considering taking shots at moving up.
The white areas are for you to adjust values. The blue areas are formulas. I chose not to lock the formulas so that those of you who want to can adjust these as well if you prefer to work in big blinds per 100 instead of big bets.
You can download my Bankroll Management Excel Sheets here.
If you do not have Excel, you can open and use this spreadsheet using Google Docs.

In Conclusion
I haven’t covered nearly everything that is involved when moving up in stakes and taking shots, but I hope that this article has helped you in some way as it has helped me in figuring out what I need to do to reach my goals in this game.
Success in managing your poker career requires the same skills that are required while playing the game. You need to gather enough information to formulate a plan, act on that plan, and manage your money to meet those goals. Everything will not always work out but you have the tools to figure out what went wrong and you will be better prepared for next time.
Wednesday, 26 November 2008
Swongs, Heaters and Supernova Dreams
I had another monster downswing session last weekend and it put me way beyond the limits of my psychological bankroll. I was back at the bottom of my graph trough that I was at the previous weekend. On Sunday afternoon I sat down with HEM and went over hand by hand for a couple of hours to try to figure out what was going wrong.
2 things I noticed right away: I was playing too many pots out of position and I was paying off when I knew I was beat (spewing).
So I took my game back down to basics and played a more ABC style for the next couple of days with a little bit of small ball stuff thrown in against certain types of players. Presto: profiting again! I recovered nicely by Monday afternoon.
I was feeling so good about my game by Tuesday that I decided I was going to take a shot at 100NL on Tuesday morning. Best. Session. Ever. Also my best day ever. Unluckily I had a dentist appointment cut my heater short, but I ended up nearly 4.5 buyins in about an hour.
I have been writing an article about moving up in stakes. I think it’s really helped me figure out what was going wrong in my attempts. I hope to have that posted sometime tomorrow or the day after as it’s in the final editing stages, so I’m looking forward to hearing peoples’ opinions on that.
I decided yesterday that I am going to make a serious attempt at hitting Supernova by the end of the year. My recent success at 50NL and 100NL will allow me to do that. I will have about 28k VPPs to go at the start of December, and I think I can do it if I follow my schedule. I figured out I need to play about 1.5 hours on days that I work, and 3.5 hours on days that I don’t at 100NL or the equivalent number of VPP hours at 50NL to make it (approximately 40% more hours iirc). It would be sweet if I could accomplish that. It’s kind of funny how I only made 70k VPPs in 11 months and then try for 30k in one month. Would have been nice if I hadn't busted out of the 2x Tourney to auto-move up to Supernova in July - I think there were only 30 out of 60 left that needed to bust out when I did with over 1k entrants. Oh well, do it the hard way I guess.
So keep an eye out for my article hopefully in the next couple of days. I would really love to get some comments on it. And if it helps someone else who is struggling to move up, all the better.
2 things I noticed right away: I was playing too many pots out of position and I was paying off when I knew I was beat (spewing).
So I took my game back down to basics and played a more ABC style for the next couple of days with a little bit of small ball stuff thrown in against certain types of players. Presto: profiting again! I recovered nicely by Monday afternoon.
I was feeling so good about my game by Tuesday that I decided I was going to take a shot at 100NL on Tuesday morning. Best. Session. Ever. Also my best day ever. Unluckily I had a dentist appointment cut my heater short, but I ended up nearly 4.5 buyins in about an hour.
I have been writing an article about moving up in stakes. I think it’s really helped me figure out what was going wrong in my attempts. I hope to have that posted sometime tomorrow or the day after as it’s in the final editing stages, so I’m looking forward to hearing peoples’ opinions on that.
I decided yesterday that I am going to make a serious attempt at hitting Supernova by the end of the year. My recent success at 50NL and 100NL will allow me to do that. I will have about 28k VPPs to go at the start of December, and I think I can do it if I follow my schedule. I figured out I need to play about 1.5 hours on days that I work, and 3.5 hours on days that I don’t at 100NL or the equivalent number of VPP hours at 50NL to make it (approximately 40% more hours iirc). It would be sweet if I could accomplish that. It’s kind of funny how I only made 70k VPPs in 11 months and then try for 30k in one month. Would have been nice if I hadn't busted out of the 2x Tourney to auto-move up to Supernova in July - I think there were only 30 out of 60 left that needed to bust out when I did with over 1k entrants. Oh well, do it the hard way I guess.
So keep an eye out for my article hopefully in the next couple of days. I would really love to get some comments on it. And if it helps someone else who is struggling to move up, all the better.
Thursday, 20 November 2008
Recovery... and then some
I managed to win back the money I lost this weekend during the week. I was getting way too aggro and pushing my LAG game way too far. I reeled it back in with great results. I am also looking at making 100NL my new regular game more and more and 50NL as my game when tables are slow - as long as the games are good. I'm feeling exceptionally comfortable at 100NL right now and I've figured out 50NL. You'll probably still see me at 25NL in the early mornings when not much is running.
I also wanted to say Thanks to Stars support for reimbursing me for the system failure yesterday. I can imagine the number of emails they were dealing with after being down for about 3 minutes. I was at 100NL and in some small pots and posted a bunch of blinds when it happened, and I had a no hassle reimbursement within 12 hours. Amazing.
I have run the numbers on Supernova and I don't think I'm going to quite get there this year. I'm fine with that. I assume I will get it in early 2nd quarter next year and it's really only a matter of an extra 100k FPPs to spend or $1500 in bonus. No sense in me doing something detrimental to my game or my bankroll or killing myself grinding crazy hours to get it.
An interesting hand from yesterday - Induceaments or am I a Station?:
Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
UTG: $99.50
UTG+1: $106.95
MP1: $119.05
Hero (MP2): $101.50
CO: $157.80
BTN: $100.00
SB: $57.55
BB: $97.85
Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with J
J
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $4, CO calls $4, 3 folds, UTG calls $3
Flop: ($13.50) 8
6
8
(3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $8, CO calls $8, UTG folds
Turn: ($29.50) 6
(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $15, Hero calls $15
River: ($59.50) 4
(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $30, Hero calls $30
Final Pot: $119.50
Hero shows J
J
(two pair, Jacks and Eights)
CO shows K
Q
(two pair, Eights and Sixes)
Hero wins $116.50
(Rake: $3.00)
I also wanted to say Thanks to Stars support for reimbursing me for the system failure yesterday. I can imagine the number of emails they were dealing with after being down for about 3 minutes. I was at 100NL and in some small pots and posted a bunch of blinds when it happened, and I had a no hassle reimbursement within 12 hours. Amazing.
I have run the numbers on Supernova and I don't think I'm going to quite get there this year. I'm fine with that. I assume I will get it in early 2nd quarter next year and it's really only a matter of an extra 100k FPPs to spend or $1500 in bonus. No sense in me doing something detrimental to my game or my bankroll or killing myself grinding crazy hours to get it.
An interesting hand from yesterday - Induceaments or am I a Station?:
Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
UTG: $99.50
UTG+1: $106.95
MP1: $119.05
Hero (MP2): $101.50
CO: $157.80
BTN: $100.00
SB: $57.55
BB: $97.85
Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with J
J
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $4, CO calls $4, 3 folds, UTG calls $3
Flop: ($13.50) 8
6
8
(3 players)UTG checks, Hero bets $8, CO calls $8, UTG folds
Turn: ($29.50) 6
(2 players)Hero checks, CO bets $15, Hero calls $15
River: ($59.50) 4
(2 players)Hero checks, CO bets $30, Hero calls $30
Final Pot: $119.50
Hero shows J
J
(two pair, Jacks and Eights)CO shows K
Q
(two pair, Eights and Sixes)Hero wins $116.50
(Rake: $3.00)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)

