Sunday, 21 September 2008

Small heater

I finally broke out of my slump over the past few days. I've been on a heater for 5 days and I'm up 18 buyins at 25NL in a little more than 10k hands. I'm not sure what's changed but I seem to have gotten back into that state of mind that I had in this post. The card dead stretches tend to get me out of that state of mind. The games have also been excellent lately and the weekend 25NL games are playing like the weekday 5NL games. I need to buy a bigger net for all the money being thrown at me.

I haven't taken very good notes on the regs that I have several thousand hands on over the past couple months. I don't even recognize some of them when I look through my database. So now I'm making a point of going through HEM every day and creating a detailed profile on a couple of regs that I see all the time. I debated a lot over whether this was a good use of time considering that there are so many fish out there that detailed notes on regs other than just stuff like "reg," "avoid," "2p2" etc. that I don't really need to worry about the regs. I decided it is a good idea because a lot of them at this level actually have huge leaks. If I ever want to move up, I'm going to have to be able to beat more and more regs so I might as well start now and learn to beat them and exploit their leaks rather than take the easy (lazy) route of passing up some decently +EV situations to avoid a reg war.

I've adapted my game to be a bit more exploitive rather than optimal. I am starting to take some mega weird exploitive lines once in a while when a situation warrants it if I notice a specific leak in a certain player's game instead of playing XxXx the optimal way against an x/y/z opponent with an abc textured board. This seems to be a bit more of a risk for me because if I'm wrong I'll often lose a good deal of my stack or totally wreck my image to the point that I'm not sure how they or the rest of the table will react anymore, but the payoffs can be so much bigger, too. I think I am starting to get to the point of trusting my reads enough to make this happen though, so we'll see how it works out.

And I believe this also serves to totally screw with the other regs that are going through their DBs and trying to make notes on me. I don't think Shania is that important at 25NL if at all, but I'm guessing that I'll continue to see some of the same regs over and over as I move up and their 25NL DB continues into 50NL and their 100NL DB continues when they move up to 200NL.

Oh I forgot to mention the past couple of days that the 10NL video I made unfortunately crashed on rendering and I'm not sure how to get it back or if I can. I'll try to make another one possibly this week, although this week will be quite busy for me.

Friday, 19 September 2008

US government bailouts - LOLtheFED

I thought this deserved it's own post so I moved it. This kind of stuff just makes me kind of pissed off and it's not even in my own country. So sad to see how uninformed people are to the workings of their own government and national financial systems.

I just saw on CNN that the US federal government is now set to take over $10s of billions in bad mortgages (Edit: it is now confirmed that Bush is asking for a whopping $700 billion). Wow. This is what happens when you let a private group of banks aka The Federal Reserve control the nation's currency (misleading name 'eh? Nothing Federal about it and nothing in Reserve to back up the currency).

Just so you know, private banks generally try to make themselves money, not protect the public interest. And then you get the moral hazard effect because you have banks bailing themselves out by printing money out of thin air and loaning it to themselves. They can take all sorts of crazy risks because the buck is always going to be passed on to the tax payer.

When they say on the news that the federal government is bailing out these banks and insurance groups what does this really mean? The federal government has no money to loan out besides what is supposedly in the treasury that is supposed to be used to run the government, military, and services they provide. In reality they borrow from the FED as well so it's oxymoronic to call this a government bailout when the government has no money to bail anyone out. This is a FED bailout, passing the debt on to the "government" ie. the tax payers.

Kind of weird how the banks can loan money out to the public and private corporations, screw up and lose it because they are reckless, print more money to cover losses and charge you the interest on the money they just created to bail themselves out. You wind up with the FED and the government saying, "National Debt? Inflation? How did that happen? We have to throw more money at it to avert financial disaster," like this totally blindsided them instead of actually fixing the system, ie. get rid of the FED and revert to the pre-1913 sound financial policy. I'd like to see the results of a poll asking people whether they think the FED is a federal government agency or a group of private banks. People don't listen:

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation then by deflation, the banks and the corporations will grow up around them, will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."
- Thomas Jefferson

Thursday, 18 September 2008

Canadian Election Bonanza and Electric Cars: Round Eleventy1

The Conservative Party has gone into their patented full swing 1 promise per day campaign. Some interesting ideas coming out. $750 rebate to first time home owners. $1000 more in tax free income for seniors.

And best of all: Maternity/Parental Leave for self employed people. Currently in Canada, if you are self employed and want to take some time off to start a family you have to save like mad or you are SOL. One thing they should really be looking at though is the outright fradulant charging of mandatory Employment Insurance premiums on part-time workers' wages, but denying them benefits if they lose their job because they don't qualify. LOL is all I have to say to that.

The NDP are promising to throw money at things and to set up rediculous social beurocratic programs like usual: $1 billion for more doctors, $1 billion for home care, ad nauseum.

The Liberals are just trying to get off the ground. Literally. They have had a lot of trouble with their leased campaign jet. That and the Green Shift can't get off the ground either because no one, not even themselves, understand how it works, nevermind be able to explain it to voters. And good luck trying to sell a new tax as your platform for why we should vote Liberal. And $70 billion for infrastructure.

The one thing I don't get is why they throw around numbers for these massive projects and programs. What does $70 billion really buy you? Is this a lot or not much? I have no idea. I get the $750 rebate and the $1000 income tax free for seniors. Those are numbers that you can apply directly to your budget. But seriously $1 billion here, $70 billion there... this means nothing to me other than politicians throwing around the words million and billion and gajillion to grab attention. Wow, $1 billion, that's 40 million buyins... and completely ambiguos and irrelevant.

Oh and I'm also looking forward to this:
That's if the electric car doesn't get torpedoed again like it did in the 90s (GM's EV-1). They always act like this hasn't been done before. This documentary was very imformative: Who Killed the Electric Car


Edit: I just saw on CNN that the US federal government is now set to take over $10s of billions in bad mortgages. Wow. This is what happens when you let a private group of banks aka The Federal Reserve (misleading name 'eh?) control the nation's currency. Just so you know, private banks generally try to make themselves money, not protect the public interest. People don't listen though:

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation then by deflation, the banks and the corporations will grow up around them, will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."
- Thomas Jefferson

Another decent day

Today went ok again. Finished up another 4 buyins: 2 at 6max and 2 at full ring. I had some interesting hands:

Hand #1 is my first orbit this morning at 6 max. This really reinforces just how light people will call you down in this game, and I had considered this guy to be fairly decent from my notes on him. I've been experimenting with the 3BB open in 6 max, it seems I get to see a lot of flops cheaper since I'm playing so many more spec hands than full ring, but still builds a pot and people generally still react to it the same way. The other nice thing is that it allows you to call a few more 3bets because their 3bets will tend to be a bit smaller so my implied odds are often ok to set mine or whatnot.


Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $22.45
Hero (CO): $26.55
BTN: $16.00
SB: $38.20
BB: $25.60

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with 3 3
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.75) A 2 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.25, SB calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.25) 5 (2 players)
SB bets $4, Hero raises to $12, SB calls $8

River: ($28.25) 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $12.55 all in, SB calls $12.55

Final Pot: $53.35
Hero shows 3 3 (a full house, Threes full of Fives)
SB mucks A 6
Hero wins $51.35
(Rake: $2.00)

Hand #2 I got into this war with a 66/40/3 maniac. This is the 3rd consecutive hand that he's open minraised and I've 3bet him every time and he's folded the other 2 flops. I figured he was just tired of me doing this and that I should be way ahead or flipping. LOL wow was I wrong, preflop equity went from 7% to flop equity of 46%, then back down to 27% and then the beautiful river 5c.

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $10.55
UTG: $14.90
UTG+1: $20.00
UTG+2: $17.70
MP1: $15.40
MP2: $23.80
CO: $24.30
Hero (BTN): $25.75
SB: $25.55

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with A K
4 folds, MP2 raises to $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.75, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $5, Hero raises to $25.75 all in, MP2 calls $18.80 all in

Flop: ($47.95) Q 2 T (2 players - 2 are all in)

Turn: ($47.95) A (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($47.95) 5 (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $47.95
MP2 shows A A (three of a kind, Aces)
Hero shows A K (a flush, Ace high)
Hero wins $45.60
(Rake: $2.35)

Hand #3 is against an uber fish that I figured would be chasing a lot of stuff and not folding pocket pairs so I'm betting for value and protection on the flop. These fish always slowplay these spots so he probably doesn't even put me on Qx if anything at all. Turn was the best card in the deck and I wanted to bet enough that he'd call and hopefully hit a flush draw. His shove on a blank river kind of made me go "Huh?" and fistpump-snap-call. 3 pair FTW.

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $24.75
BB: $25.35
UTG: $15.00
UTG+1: $27.50
UTG+2: $18.40
MP1: $21.80
MP2: $24.20
Hero (CO): $46.60
BTN: $24.65

UTG posts a big blind ($0.25)
Pre Flop: ($0.60) Hero is CO with Q A
UTG checks, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 4 folds, UTG+2 calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.60) Q Q 8 (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $2.50, UTG+2 calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.60) A (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $3, UTG+2 calls $3

River: ($14.60) J (2 players)
UTG+2 bets $11.40 all in, Hero calls $11.40

Final Pot: $37.40
UTG+2 shows J 8 (two pair, Queens and Jacks)
Hero shows Q A (a full house, Queens full of Aces)
Hero wins $35.60
(Rake: $1.80)

Hand #4 Turn card was just gross because I knew he had a Tx hand. This makes it a clear fold, but for some reason I was thinking I had odds to fill up, which I believe I would if I had a set, but 2 pair only has 9% equity in this spot, lol. Fill up anyways vs the turned nuts.

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $39.95
Hero (BTN): $25.25
SB: $24.50
BB: $15.75
UTG: $5.80
UTG+1: $12.65
UTG+2: $14.95
MP1: $7.85
MP2: $28.75

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with Q J
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 2 folds, UTG+2 calls $1

Flop: ($2.85) 9 J 8 (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $2, UTG+2 calls $2

Turn: ($6.85) Q (2 players)
UTG+2 bets $3.75, Hero calls $3.75

River: ($14.35) J (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $13.50, UTG+2 calls $7.95 all in

Final Pot: $30.25
Hero shows Q J (a full house, Jacks full of Queens)
UTG+2 mucks K T
Hero wins $28.80
(Rake: $1.45)

I also got into a reg war with one of the best 25NL full ring players on Stars. He runs in god-mode at 17 ptBB/100 over 5k hands. His 3bet stats are normal, but he always seems to be 3betting me specifically when he's on the button, so I thought I'd 4bet light with my 55 and spewed off a buyin. He always has it. Everytime. I should be practicing avoidance. I probably won't though since I now went through HEM stats on him in detail and I think I found some highly exploitable traits that might be good for multiple buyins.

So overall it was a highly successful day. Also get those votes in on the poll and leave comments! If you're not sure what they are, look them up. They will immensely improve your game.

Wednesday, 17 September 2008

Made some money - finally

It's been pretty rough the last while - grinding for breakeven $0/hour.

Today worked out alright. Finished up 4 buyins and my non-SD winnings were actually on the plus side. From what I understand and based on my own graph, this does not happen very often in uFR due to all the calling stations you can't force off of hands.

Had one guy running 30/0/3 immediately to my left that was critiqueing every hand I showed down whether it was against him or not. I snapped off his bluff in BvB with AJo on AKKxx for 1/2 a buyin when he potted the river and proceeded to lecture me about why I should not be calling there, lol. He then tried 2 more bluffs for another 1.5 buyins and each time asked me how I could make those calls. Exploitable? This was the first time that I actually found chat to be +EV and I kept him going saying stuff like "now you're just calling my steals with anything to try to bust me, lol" etc. and he tilted quite hard when I snapped him off or he called and I had it. Very enjoyable.

Here's an example of the value of not shoving AA/KK preflop especially when villain's range is wide. If I shove here, he could easily fold, but by just calling I look weaker and he probably puts me on AK/JJ/QQ a lot of the time because KK+ would just shove right? No. This lets me get their whole stack with AA/KK even when they're 3 and 4 betting light a lot more. I obviously do this less with KK/QQ to avoid letting an Ace peel the flop, but it still works pretty good if you think their range is TT+ or some SCs because then a JJ overpair is never folding and they'll shove if they think you missed with your AK. Very important not to do this with deepstacks as getting the money gets tougher so aim for an SPR of 3 or 4 or less.

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $5.15
MP2: $24.70
CO: $26.35
BTN: $27.40
SB: $30.75
Hero (BB): $24.65
UTG: $13.05
UTG+1: $25.00
UTG+2: $42.15

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with A A
7 folds, SB raises to $1, Hero raises to $3.25, SB raises to $8, Hero calls $4.75

Flop: ($16.00) 8 6 3 (2 players)
SB bets $22.75 all in, Hero calls $16.65 all in

Turn: ($49.30) 7 (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($49.30) K (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $49.30
SB shows Q A (high card Ace)
Hero shows A A (a pair of Aces)
Hero wins $46.90
(Rake: $2.40)

Another fun hand. This shows the importance of pushing your strong hands fast, especially against calling stations. If he's got nothing he's folding anyways and this actually looks weaker and more like a top pair hand than if I check-raise so he's more likely to call down with his top pair and let me control the betting. It also sucks if you check the flop and a 3 flush hits the turn, because your action is going to slow way down.

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $22.05
MP2: $6.65
CO: $25.95
BTN: $5.50
Hero (SB): $28.25
BB: $15.00
UTG: $11.80
UTG+1: $17.15

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with 7 7
UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.15, BB checks

Flop: ($1.25) Q 7 A (5 players)
Hero bets $1, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $1, MP2 folds

Turn: ($3.25) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $3, UTG+1 calls $3

River: ($9.25) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $24 all in, UTG+1 calls $12.90 all in

Final Pot: $35.05
Hero shows 7 7 (a full house, Sevens full of Threes)
UTG+1 mucks J A
Hero wins $33.35
(Rake: $1.70)

Hopefully this keeps up and I can salvage the month.