Thursday, 4 March 2010

Whine ITP

** Warning: Beat Post ** Cliffnotes for those that don't like reading about beats

ugh. You can basically take my last post and invert it (graph and all) over the past 5 days.

There's something to be said about spiralling downswings. Beats + Tilt leads to Bad Play. Bad Play means not picking up enough value to outweigh the Beats. So the solution then, is to cut out the Tilt so that the equation can not be completed and perpetuated.

The first 2 days were pure monkey tilt. Sets and AA/KK/QQ (always running into 1 pair bigger -- for those that do not know: KK>QQ, AA>KK, 22>AA) were my biggest losers and I was sum-negative with all of these. Big Pots = Big Variance. The 3rd day was just plain slow-bleed frustration. The last 2 days have been no better variance-wise, but my thought process is right back on track and I'm theoretically crushing again in an alternate universe where Sklansky runs the FED. It is encouraging to know that my bad play game is EV neutral so that's a positive.

The bet/bet/check-fold trend continues vs everyone from 10/8 to 72/5 as the most innocuous boards continue to run out 4 flush/straight. I'm all for a rule change stating flushes must use both holecards aside from the fact that when fish call off their stack vs my flop shove with As4h on AhKs3h9hQh and think they've made a brilliant psychic play which is apparent by my "nh" followed by a simple "ty" -- they are typically still level 0 even after cards are flipped up.

Standard runbad in big pots
Nominate Sklansky to chair the FED
4 flush is the bane of my existence
Brilliant psychic fish

Sorry for the whine, I hope it was at least entertaining. Here's to hoping the long run pops his head in here any minute now...


  1. I feel the pain, champ.

    At least you can seek solace in the fact that your game is fundamentally sound. As I struggle through a similar downswing, I start to wonder how much is just bad luck and how much is bad play, knowing full well it's mostly a combination of both.

    My biggest pet peeve at the moment is that the EV line doesn't reflect my run bad. I haven't been getting my money in good and being sucked out on so much as I've been running the second nuts into the nizzles in a spot where it's almost impossible to not lose my pants.

    This is me hijacking your whine post and using it for my own.

  2. Zach that is exactly what's happening a lot to me too: 2nd nuts < nuts.

    Example: hero has 74s SB and bets flop K56r. turn x hero bet/calls a minraise. river the beautiful 8. Hero open ships 2x pot cause lol people don't fold sets. Villain snap-flips 97o.

    Plus all the KK<AA goes to 'well you deserved to lose that' HEM line.

    Just for fun, we're standing at 5 days and 19 buyins below EV nevermind the coolers.

  3. I had days like this, where the whole stack accumulated went bye bye with my AA vs KK, and K hits the river.

    At that point, took a cooler by cashing, and then started up again 2 weeks later. Nothing like a couple of winning streaks under your belt to make you feel better again.

    Hope it turns around.

  4. You know the routine... don't lose you're head. You're playing well and there is nothing you can do if the deck is against you. Don't lose faith and take heart that you're a solid player who's hit a streak of bad luck.

    The worst thing you can do is start to play scared.

  5. Short update: Back on track now. Even though that was one of my biggest $ downswings I think I cut it fairly short. Could've easily been a lot worse.

  6. Good to hear the worst looks to be over. Sounds like you kept a pretty level head and avoided the "tilt" part of your equation. Big pots do indeed equal big variance but keep getting your money in good and play within in bankroll and you'll always come back.

  7. Exactly what Nomad said. Just keep your head on straight and it will come around. Look at Negreanu right now. He's back on the $10 to $100 challenge and even he's losing at the low limits! Good to hear you are back on the up swing though.

    With that being said, I am looking forward to your upcoming posts, because I'm also looking to start up a blog very similar to yours. With the hopes of going from 'Zero to Hero' if you will. Pretty much exactly what Chris Ferguson did. I'm trying to duplicate it.

    Other than that. Please check out my site if you can - .

    Also, do you ever mention what name you play under? And do you just play PS for now?

  8. good luck and keep running good!!!!!