And the winner is... bobby13!
Sorry to bobby and Splitsuit for the extra sweat. I didn't realize I had to moderate comments on the last post already =)
bobby13's guess of 3500 is within 163.36 bb of my actual 3336.64 bb below AIEV. Congrats! If you could post your 2p2 screenname as a comment below or give me some other way to contact you I'll get you your free copy of Tilt Breaker.
Thanks to everyone who put in a guess! And now it's time for me to slam the lid on this graph and get back to trying to run average =)