Friday, 20 May 2011

Thoughts on 18% W$SD

I'm at a bit of a loss as to how to stop this cycle. I get on these really decent runs where I play awesome and feel confident and motivated and hands hold up for a couple of weeks as I steadily grind up a good nanonoko-style-graph profit thinking I've finally gotten out of this shit hole of the longest breakeven stretch ever.

Then I hit the odd day here and there every couple of weeks where I play a session or two and the RNG decides it wants to skydive off my graph at 15% to 30% W$SD with normal W$WSF and WtSD for 2k or 3k hands. I  feel like a massive underdog every hand unless I have 80%+ equity when all-in -- past 80% I assume I am ahead which is worth a little prayer to hold -- and completely destroy 2/3 of my monthly profits in a very short time frame. This results in me feeling dejected and unmotivated to play at all for at least the next week and is the main reason for my laughable volume over the past year.

I know that I could try to avoid playing when things are going this terrible but it's kind of hard to catch in a couple of thousand hands which is literally a few hours when you can brush off the first few coolers and suckouts and say "ok you're playing fine, nh" only to be smacked a few more times in a row before realizing it's going to be one of those -8 buyin sessions.

I'm just spinning my wheels in a rut trying to gain some momentum only to slide right back down every time.
Definition of insanity...

Example from today. I just start to feel like there's zero chance river is ever a brick here when I get into these shitty high variance spots during these sessions.

My thought process goes something like this:
I'm ahead of his stack off range. Quick estimation is 60-75%.
Drag the slider all-in.
FML here goes another buyin but it's the "correct" play.
Just fold just fold just fold just fold.
Click. Shove.
Villain snapcalls. Bink. Sometimes the nice ones at least say "ty."
Story of my life.

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1315999
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $17.25
Hero (BTN): $50.00
SB: $48.75
BB: $25.00
UTG: $71.70
UTG+1: $25.10
UTG+2: $75.10
MP1: $50.30
MP2: $23.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with Q of spades K of clubs
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $1.50, 1 fold, MP1 calls $1.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.50, SB calls $1.25, BB calls $1

Flop: ($7.50) K of hearts J of diamonds 7 of diamonds (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets $5, Hero calls $5, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 folds

Turn: ($17.50) Q of hearts (2 players)
MP1 bets $10, Hero raises to $43.50 all in, MP1 calls $33.50

River: ($104.50) 9 of hearts (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $104.50
Hero shows Q of spades K of clubs (two pair, Kings and Queens)
MP1 shows T of diamonds 8 of diamonds (a straight, Nine to King)
MP1 wins $101.50
(Rake: $3.00)



  1. alright mate, check out my recent blog post, it might be of interest to ya being a pokerstars grinder

  2. TJ: I should have posted stats. PFRer is an 11/9 nit and I don't really want to take KQo against his 3bet pot range. MP1 is a 40-ish vpip fish.

    Seems like a waste to bluff/fold it when I can play in position in a fish sandwhich pot where PFRer has to play straightforward and I can play for pair value against the fish when PFRer gives up.

    Rossi: Thanks for the heads up!

  3. kqo def fold or sqz there. as utg+1 has just half stack and hes also orgi raiser, its almost always a fold, rev implied odds v him etc etc.