Monday, 15 September 2008

Back to 25NL full ring variance

Played 1600 hands today for a whopping -10 ptBB/100. You know those days where you flop the current nuts and nothing holds and you get stacked and stacked and stacked by runner runner? That's the kind of day it's been. Today I've been getting KK and thinking here goes another stack.

I decided that for now 3 buyins is going to be my limit for a session. On reviewing my hands, I think I played extremely well today. It's just that everyone was catching their draws after I had bloated the pot with the near nuts or the actual nuts, and they shove their last 20BB in there and I'm getting 4:1 or whatever. Normally I don't quit due to a stop loss, but I think it might be helpful when I'm experiencing this much variance just to keep the self-confidence up. The last week has been a giant swong and I was at exactly +14 buyins, back to breakeven, then to +8 buyins, and back to breakeven again in the last 6 days. I thought July was bad but it was nothing compared to what I'm going through now.

A big part of it is I have increased my aggression a lot which also brings a lot of variance with it. I just have to be happy knowing that I am getting the majority or all of the money in when I am a significant favorite nearly every time at this level. And along with it I am getting a ton of action with my monsters. I just need to run average and I'll be killing 25NL again.

This hand basically sums up my day:

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The Official Hand History Converter

UTG: $19.90
UTG+1: $4.65
MP: $11.65
CO: $5.00
Hero (BTN): $26.75
SB: $21.20
BB: $15.80

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with T A
UTG calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, SB calls $1.15, 1 fold, UTG calls $1

Flop: ($4.00) T A 4 (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $3, SB calls $3, UTG folds

Turn: ($10.00) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6, SB raises to $12, Hero raises to $22.50 all in, SB calls $4.95 all in

River: ($43.90) 6 (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $43.90
Hero mucks T A
SB shows Q A (two pair, Aces and Queens)
SB wins $41.75
(Rake: $2.15)


  1. on flop SB is not going to call your Cbet without an A, once you get called and the Q comes you should be looking to see a cheap showdown, not shove your stack in the middle with TP2k.

  2. Sick bump considering this hand is from September 2008 (2.5 years ago). I actually have 2 pair in this hand, not TP2K, which makes this an auto-stack off against absolutely everyone at 25NL considering the game dynamic and stack off ranges at the time.

    That said, if I actually had TP2K (AJ) against a non-reloading fish on this board, checking the turn for pot control knowing he has Ax or better would be a rather large mistake since there are way more worse Ax hands than better even in 2011.

    Yes it kind of sucks and becomes thin when you get c/r, but with 2 pair getting 2:1 is more than enough if all he ever has is AQ, A4 and 44 2011 nit-fest ranges but the frequency of that happening pales in comparison to the times he c/c again with a worse Ax.

    Getting to showdown is not a reason to take an action in and of itself. Equity and ranges are all that matter.