Wednesday, 24 September 2008

Took a shot - epic fail

I took a shot at 100NL today which went fairly well to start with. Then I started running into sets and setup hands. I got into my "they're playing back at me" mode and spewed a few buyins unfortunately.

So when I got back from work I fired up 24 tables of 25NL and got back $100+ in a couple hours. Apparently this evening's session was hot for me as HEM says my total profit is $103 but my $EV is -$30 lol. This is mostly due to these 3 hands where I got money in terribly bad:

Hand #1 Is standard dont fold KK PF. I dont like my bet sizing at all, but it worked out for once with me winning when the board goes to 4 flush.
Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The Official Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): $24.75
BB: $15.00
UTG: $14.00
UTG+1: $21.15
MP: $8.95
CO: $24.50
BTN: $14.65

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with K K
UTG raises to $0.50, UTG+1 raises to $1.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to $5, 1 fold, UTG calls $4.50, UTG+1 raises to $21.15 all in, Hero calls $16.15, UTG calls $9 all in

Flop: ($56.55) J 6 2 (3 players - 2 are all in)

Turn: ($56.55) 9 (3 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($56.55) 9 (3 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $56.55
Hero shows K K (a flush, King high)
UTG mucks T T
UTG+1 mucks A A
Hero wins $13.60
Hero wins $40.15
(Rake: $2.80)

Hand #2 This hand was pretty lol. This guy was an aggro donk and I actually put him on complete air. 3 outer is good!
Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official Hand History Converter

MP1: $25.00
MP2: $22.45
CO: $5.85
Hero (BTN): $23.90
SB: $28.50
BB: $10.75
UTG: $14.25
UTG+1: $18.90

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with T 8
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 2 folds, MP1 calls $1

Flop: ($2.85) 8 5 2 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $2, MP1 raises to $5, Hero calls $3

Turn: ($12.85) J (2 players)
MP1 bets $18.75 all in, Hero calls $17.65 all in

River: ($48.15) 8 (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $48.15
MP1 shows Q Q (two pair, Queens and Eights)
Hero shows T 8 (three of a kind, Eights)
Hero wins $45.80
(Rake: $2.35)

Hand #3 Decided to go with my combo draw after he gave me nice odds preflop. Im 43% on the flop against any 1 pair hand so with the money in the pot, this is an easy shove.
Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official Hand History Converter

UTG: $31.60
UTG+1: $22.20
UTG+2: $11.90
MP1: $31.95
MP2: $25.50
Hero (CO): $26.85
BTN: $14.70
SB: $28.20
BB: $9.65

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with 9 T
5 folds, Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, BB raises to $2, Hero calls $1

Flop: ($4.10) 8 6 K (2 players)
BB bets $3, Hero raises to $12.75, BB calls $4.65 all in

Turn: ($19.40) 4 (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($19.40) 7 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $19.40
Hero shows 9 T (a flush, King high)
BB shows A A (a pair of Aces)
Hero wins $18.45
(Rake: $0.95)

I wish I got home a bit earlier, the games really dry up after 1:00 EST. At least I'm finally comfortable running the max number of tables on Stars. I'll have 1 or 2 tables time out occasionally if I have a bit of a decision somewhere else but otherwise I can keep them all going. And that will get me very close to Supernova if I can do it for the rest of the year.

I think I am going to make that my goal and forget about really moving up until next year. I won't be able to really work on my game at all 24 tabling, so it's a choice between that and just making auto-pilot money and getting the 3.5x multiplier for next year, which I think will be worth a lot to me. I would hate to have to start over in January and wait until May or June to move up the VIP ladder.

Racked my brain at work to figure out what to do. I decided to add WtSD to my HUD so that I can see who I can push around and who I can't and who is going to pay off my spec hands. I had only been using fold to flop cbet and fold to turn cbet until now. WtSD converges fairly slowly, but I think I get an idea of how the player is playing at least in the shortrun on the current table and I used it to push a few guys off of likely top pair hands.

Aggression. This is what I need to work on. And applying it at the right time to avoid spewing.

The poll results for which concept or theory is most valuable to your game are:
Pot Control - 4 (66%)
Baluga Theorem - 1 (16%)
Other - 1 (16%) no comment left
Zeebo - 0
SPR - 0

Im quite surprised that SPR did not get any votes. I know its tough to use it in 100BB games, but I still find it helpful. Pot control and Baluga are definately 2 of my favorites and have saved me a lot of money.

* Some of the text in this post is messed up in terms of grammar and punctuation. My keyboard still likes to switch to Spanish once in a while so instead of an apostrophe, I get a รจ.

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